A recent study found that more gender-equal countries have larger
gender gaps in mental health. I look at the data that seems to have
yielded this counter-intuitive results and find it lacking.
Origins of the phrase The title of this blog is Strong Opinions, Weakly Held. The same concept shows up elsewhere are Strong Opinions Loosely Held. An eponymous essay by Paul Saffo in  introduced the world to this concept.
In his essay – which isn’t very long if you would like to read the whole thing yourself – he lays out the concept as follows:
I have found that the fastest way to an effective forecast is often through a sequence of lousy forecasts.
How to bind a hotkey to grab a snapshot of your reMarkable display
and copy it to the clipboard on a Mac.
I’ve done hundreds of interviews. I’ve also served in numerous hiring committees over the years.
Tech companies tend to have cultures built around tech people interviewing other tech people, typically in what is not-so-affectionately known as the “Tech interview.” This is good because candidates would be evaluated based on their actual skills instead of keywords in their resume. Interviewers are in effect choosing their future coworkers which makes in interview serve the interest of both the interviewer and the interviewee.
Where does the Poisson Distribution come from?
A little bit of research1 tells us that the distribution was originally introduced by Abraham de Moivre in 1710 in an article called “On the Measurement of Chance, or, on the Probability of Events in Games Depending Upon Fortuitous Chance” 2 (not the original title).
A few steps that will get us there is laid out below.
Let’s start with a simple “rate” problem.